A Look Back at the U.S. Cattle Market
In 2025, cattle prices reached record and astonishing highs. For feeder cattle prices saw 700- to 800-pound steers in the Southern Plains averaging $323 to $328 per hundredweight, and 500- to 600-pound steers exceeding $400 per hundredweight. For cattlemen across the US, this is the time to reap the high prices. Let’s look back on some of the trends and influences of the market.
Coming into 2025, the U.S. cattle herd was at its lowest level in decades. We just came out of a severe drought in key ranching states such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. During 2022 and 2023, several parts of the US were impacted by a drought. By 2024, the drought began to subside in most areas. However, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA), 2024 overall was a warm year and still dry in parts of the country. The drought hit various parts of the US off and on for three consecutive years, and these conditions forced ranchers to liquidate herds due to a lack of pasture.
Despite the challenges of drought, the herd numbers were low, and high cattle prices have contributed to farm income. The USDA’s September 2025 net farm income forecast projects an increase to $179.8 billion, up from $127.8 billion in 2024. This rise is largely attributed to record livestock prices
The U.S. beef export market has faced challenges due to political tensions and tariffs. U.S. beef exports to China have plummeted, with shipments falling from approximately $120 million monthly to just $8.1 million in July and $9.5 million in August.
We then had some heated discussions about importing meat from Argentina in the fall of 2025. This led to some market instability and strong backlash from the cattle industry.
Previous Trends
Previous cycles and trends can help us anticipate our current cycles and what may be ahead. The U.S. cattle market has always moved in cycles, and looking back at 2000-2010, we saw low prices. From 2000 to 2010, things were relatively steady. The national herd hovered around a million head, and fed cattle prices usually hovered from $70 to $95 per hundredweight. A major disruption came in 2003, when the first case of BSE, or Mad Cow Disease, was discovered in the United States. Countries like Japan and South Korea immediately stopped buying American beef, causing temporary price drops and uncertainty for producers. Droughts in the West and Southern Plains during the mid to late 2000s, combined with rising corn prices due to ethanol demand, added more pressure on cattle operations. By 2010, the national herd had fallen to about 93.7 million head.
From 2010 to 2020, the cattle market saw some swings. Severe drought from 2010 to 2014, especially in Texas, the Midwest, and the Southern Plains, forced many producers to reduce herd sizes. Cattle were selling, and producers were buying and hauling in hay. During this time, we saw a low in the cattle numbers, roughly 88.5 million head. With fewer cattle available but strong consumer demand, prices soared.
Fed cattle reached record highs of $170 to $175 per hundredweight, and feeder cattle climbed above $240. After the drought ended, cattlemen began rebuilding herds until the national herd was about 94.8 million head by 2019. This growth added more beef to the market, gradually bringing prices down to a more typical $115–$125 range. Then in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic happened. Packing plant closures caused fed cattle prices to briefly drop below $100, while boxed beef prices shot up in stores due to short supply.
Looking back, these two decades show just how sensitive the cattle market is to weather, disease, global trade, and consumer demand. Understanding these cycles helps producers, buyers, and consumers anticipate changes and plan ahead. There are a lot of things that influence the cattle market. In the past 20 years, we’ve seen highs and lows. As cattlemen, there are a lot of uncertainties. We listen to economists and ag commodity specialists, but in the end, these are just predictions, and since there are so many elements influencing the cattle market, the best we can do is create a stable herd and prepare for good times and the bad.
Value-Based Genetics
When it comes to cattle, there are several things we can’t control. However, there are things we can focus on controlling.
For instance, according to a comprehensive study by Jakeline Vieira Romero, José Luis Olleta, Virginia Celia Resconi, Pilar Santolaria, and María del Mar Campo, there are over 60 traits related to meat quality, with at least 27 genes. These findings have led to the development of genetic tests that allow producers to select cattle with desirable traits, such as better marbling, improving the overall quality of the beef produced.
From this, we know that genetics play a strong role in the end quality of beef cattle. In a high-price environment, the value derived from genetically-superior traits often means getting those top-end dollars. Strategic genetics can help you with your end product and also reduce your input costs through efficiency.
The industry continues to favor carcass quality and predictability. Utilize EPDs for traits. Genomic testing can show you some information on some of those 60 traits correlated to the 27 known genes. Genetic testing can let you know EPDs on young, unproven animals. When calves are marketed with verified genetic merit, they can (at times) help capture top-end premiums. This data-driven approach transforms pricing from volume-based to value-based.
The second, equally critical function of genetics is controlling the cost of production. With the high cost of replacement animals, efficiency is paramount. Pay attention to the cow’s EPDs related to fertility, cow longevity, and moderate, efficient mature size to reduce operational expense. Also, selecting genetics for feed efficiency can help lower the cost of gain in feeding out calves.
Connecting Supply and Demand: The Role of Digital Platforms
So, once genetics are prioritized, buying and selling the right cattle to the right producer is critical. This is where the American Cattlemen’s sale page (https://americancattlemen.com/auctions/) is invaluable. This page is full of top-end producers’ sales. So, if you’re looking to buy or sell, head over to that page and check out the upcoming auctions.
In the current high-price market, genetic investment is critical to capturing top-end profits and building a solid and reputable operation. By considering data-driven EPDs and genomic testing, cattlemen can ensure their herds are genetically optimized for both efficiency and premium value. We can’t control international trade, weather, demand, or market prices. However, being a cattleman takes some grit and a determination to stick with it through highs and lows. Control the variables you can and whether the highs and the lows.
January 2026
By Jessica Graham
